一、市场：你可以判断价值，但无法预测市场
“Well it depends on the stock. Some stocks now, generally speaking, they move together to quite a degree, but I don’t think I know what the market’s going to do. I do think I’ve got a reasonable idea of what a business is worth. I have no idea what the stock market’s going to do, and I don’t think anybody else does either.”
不同股票情况各不相同。总体来看，现在有些股票的走势相当一致，但我并不认为自己能够预测市场接下来会怎么走。 我确实对一家企业值多少钱有一个相对可靠的判断，但我完全不知道股市会怎么走，而且我也不认为世界上有人真正知道。
“The idea that people think they know what the market’s going to do is just crazy.”
人们以为自己能够预测市场走势，这种想法本身就是荒谬的。
二、波动：市场下跌并不等于机会
“Well, let’s talk about that. The market has come down substantially.”
“Not substantially.”
“You’ve got both the Dow and the Nasdaq in correction territory… Do things look cheaper to you?”
“No. Three times since I’ve taken over Berkshire, it’s gone down more than 50%... I mean, this is nothing.”
“市场已经大幅下跌了。”
“并没有。”
“道琼斯和纳斯达克都进入了回调区间……现在看起来更便宜了吗？”
“不。自从我接手伯克希尔以来，市场曾有三次跌幅超过50%。相比之下，现在这种波动根本不算什么。”
“Well if they’re 5 or 6% cheaper, that doesn’t — we aren’t in it to make 5 or 6%.”
如果只是便宜了5%或6%，这对我们没有意义。我们投资并不是为了赚这点波动。
三、长期主义：买的是企业，而不是价格波动
“…we own businesses. Sometimes they’re wholly owned, sometimes they’re partly owned. That’s what I like to own.”
我们拥有的是企业。有些是全资控股，有些是部分持股，这才是我想拥有的东西。
“And when we buy Occidental Chemical… it’s a business we expect to own, you know, indefinitely.”
当我们买入一家公司时，我们的预期是长期持有，甚至可以说是“无限期”。
“The goal is own the owned businesses… we do not buy that with a thought of resale.”
我们的目标是持有企业本身，而不是交易它们。我们买入时，从来不会以转卖为前提。
四、现金：不是看空，而是等待
“You’ve got $350 billion plus sitting around… are you waiting?”
“你现在手里有超过3500亿美元的现金，是在等待机会吗？”
“Yeah, if there is a big decline, we will deploy… but we will deploy it because stocks are attractive or businesses are attractive to us… we are not planning to sell them next week or next month, so we want to be right on them.”
“是的。如果出现大幅下跌，我们会出手。但我们出手的原因，是因为企业变得有吸引力，而不是因为市场下跌本身。 我们并不是打算下周或下个月就卖出，因此必须在买入时就判断正确。”
“I don’t think I know what’s happening out there… therefore, I want to be prepared for anything…”
我并不认为自己知道外部世界正在发生什么，因此必须为各种可能性做好准备。
“…we will always have cash around and we’ll have treasury bills.”
我们始终会持有一定规模的现金，以及国债。
“We get calls all the time… but they aren’t offering anything that’s at an attractive price…”
我们每天都会接到各种交易机会的电话，但对方并没有提供真正具备吸引力的价格。
五、人性与市场：投资与赌博只有一步之遥
“You have this incredible cathedral called the American Economic System…”
我们拥有一座宏伟的殿堂——美国经济体系。
“…but attached to it is a casino and people can walk back and forth between the two.”
但它旁边就是一家赌场，人们可以在两者之间来回走动。
“Believe me, people like to gamble… they like to gamble with the odds against them in the market…”
人们天生喜欢赌博，在市场中也是这样，即便胜算不大也要去赌。
“…if they just buy a stock and sit for 50 years, if they got a group of them, they’re going to do fine. I mean, the American capitalism system works and betting against the house does not work. I mean, it’s just -- it’s so simple. But, people like to gamble.”
如果他们只是买入一只股票，并持有50年——或者更好，是持有一组这样的股票——最终都会有不错的结果。 美国的资本主义体系是有效运作的，而与这个体系对着干，注定行不通。其实道理非常简单，但人们偏偏喜欢去赌。
六、宏观与通胀：真正的风险来自体系本身
“Well, if I were at the Fed, the thing I’d worry about always is, you know, you’re the reserve currency of the world. I mean, so you’ve got very smart people, very sophisticated people, the American dollar looks like nothing could happen to it. I don’t feel anything could happen to it. But if it does happen to it, I would — I wouldn’t want the responsibility of running the Fed.”
如果我是美联储，我最关心的是美元作为全球储备货币的地位。它看起来似乎不会出问题， 但一旦出问题，其后果将难以承受。
“So, inflation is maybe what you’d be more concerned about?”
“那么你更担心通胀吗？”
“Yes. I would be, I would care about inflation. But what I really would care about is the stability of the banks.”
“是的，我会关注通胀。但我真正关心的是银行体系的稳定性。”
“I mean, the banking system, in some sense is very strong, in other sense, is very fragile. I mean, JPMorgan in the last couple annual reports reported doing $10 trillion of business per day. Now, that’s an unsecured policy. Now, they know what they’re doing. Believe me. I mean, there’s nobody smarter than JP — but I don’t want — I didn’t want — during the 2008 period, I didn’t want anything unsecured, you know, out there for a day.”
银行体系在某种意义上非常强大，但在另一种意义上又极其脆弱。摩根大通每天处理的业务规模极其庞大， 当然他们知道自己在做什么，但在2008年那样的环境下，我不愿意让任何无担保风险在外面暴露哪怕一天。
“I mean, the world is very interconnected and everybody panics. I mean, it, you know, they may say they don’t, but you can call the biggest investment banking firms and they say, well, they don’t answer the phone even if things get bad enough.”
这个世界高度互联，而一旦局势恶化，所有人都会恐慌。人们嘴上或许不这么说， 但当情况足够糟糕时，连最大的投资银行都可能不再接电话。
“When liquidity disappears, it disappears… when people are scared, they’re scared.”
流动性一旦消失，往往就是瞬间蒸发。当人们恐慌时，那就是真正的恐慌。
“If you yell fire in a crowded theater, everybody runs… it still pays to beat people to the door… you can get trampled… but when people come back into the theater, they come in one at a time.”
如果你在拥挤的剧院里喊“着火了”，所有人都会冲向出口，谁先跑到门口谁就更有利， 否则就可能被踩踏。但当人们重新回到剧院时，却总是一个一个慢慢回来。